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Peer reviewed2026São Paulo, Brazil

Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform

Anagol, Ferreira & Rexer

Main finding

Allowing more floor area increased multifamily development activity and availability; the authors' equilibrium model predicts a larger housing stock and lower prices over time.

Modeled long run: 1.9% more housing and 0.5% lower prices citywide

Most important limitation

The price figures are structural simulations, not direct rent estimates, and the reform produced gains and losses for different owners and residents.

From the publication

Inspect the authors' figure directly

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 4 · Dynamic RD coefficients for multifamily permit filings

The regression-discontinuity estimates rise in the years following São Paulo's zoning reform.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 4 · Dynamic RD coefficients for multifamily permit filings
Figure 4 · Dynamic RD coefficients for multifamily permit filingsThe regression-discontinuity estimates rise in the years following São Paulo's zoning reform. Values digitized from Figure 4 in the archived publication; minor reading error is possible.-0.1000.200.40Multifamily permit filingsYears relative to reformDynamic RD estimateREFORM−4−20+2+4+6+8

Source: Anagol, Ferreira & Rexer (2026), Figure 4; PDF p. 44.

Read carefully: The outcome is permit filings near a zoning boundary, not completed homes or directly observed citywide prices.

How this study is used

Claims this evidence supports

Strong evidenceA city cannot build homes it has made illegal.See the full evidence stack →

Policy connection

Solution guides informed by this study

01Make room for apartments, shops, and neighbors02Bring back the homes between a house and a high-rise03Let homeowners add a home04Stop forcing every home to buy parking05Put more homes where the connections already are06Set clear rules—and say yes on time

Reference

Anagol, Ferreira & Rexer (2026). “Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform.”

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