Main finding
New market-rate construction lowered nearby rents, displacement risk, and rent-controlled eviction notices, while also changing very local entrant composition.
Within 500m, rents fell 1.2–2.3% and measured displacement risk fell 17%
Does Building New Housing Cause Displacement?
Pennington
Most important limitation
The displacement proxy is imperfect, San Francisco is unusual, and this is a working paper.
From the publication
Inspect the authors' figure directly
Figure 15 · Proximity to new projects, rents, and displacement
The paper’s paired distance plots show lower rents and lower measured displacement risk closest to new projects.
REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 15 · Proximity to new projects, rents, and displacement
| Outcome | Estimated effect |
|---|---|
| Rent within 500m | -2.3 |
| Move to poorer ZIP | -17.14 |
| Eviction notice within 100m | -0.77 |
| Parcel gentrification | 2.5 |
How this study is used
Claims this evidence supports
Reference
Pennington (2021). “Does Building New Housing Cause Displacement?.”