A common fear
Strong evidenceSaying no to new homes does not make newcomers disappear.
When newcomers cannot rent new homes, they bid for existing ones. Project-level studies generally find that nearby construction reduces rent and displacement pressure rather than increasing it.
Figures from the papers
Inspect the published evidence directly
Figure 2 · Rent event studies
Both comparison strategies turn negative after treatment; the vertical bars show uncertainty.
Figure 3 · Rents before and after the completion year
The completion event study shows little pre-trend and a growing negative rent effect afterward.
Figure 15 · Proximity to new projects, rents, and displacement
The paper’s paired distance plots show lower rents and lower measured displacement risk closest to new projects.
Evidence stack
Studies behind this conclusion
Does Building New Housing Cause Displacement?
New market-rate construction lowered nearby rents, displacement risk, and rent-controlled eviction notices, while also changing very local entrant composition.
Within 500m, rents fell 1.2–2.3% and measured displacement risk fell 17%
Keep in mind: The displacement proxy is imperfect, San Francisco is unusual, and this is a working paper.
Study details →Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas
Large market-rate buildings lowered nearby listed rents in low-income neighborhoods and drew movers from other low-income areas.
Nearby listed rents fell 5–7% relative to trend
Keep in mind: The main sample contains 96 buildings, and Zillow underrepresents cheaper rentals.
Study details →Do New Housing Units in Your Backyard Raise Your Rents?
Completed high-rises lowered nearby rents and sale prices even while attracting restaurants, suggesting the local supply effect outweighed the amenity effect.
A 10% local stock increase lowered nearby rents by about 1%
Keep in mind: The rent data omit many small buildings, and the result is hyperlocal.
Study details →From evidence to policy