Saying no to new homes does not make newcomers disappear.

When newcomers cannot rent new homes, they bid for existing ones. Project-level studies generally find that nearby construction reduces rent and displacement pressure rather than increasing it.

What this does not mean: Displacement is difficult to measure, and new construction cannot undo every pressure. Tenant protections and direct assistance remain important during periods of rapid change.

Figures from the papers

Inspect the published evidence directly

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 2 · Rent event studies

Both comparison strategies turn negative after treatment; the vertical bars show uncertainty.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 2 · Rent event studies

Figure 2 · Rent event studies. Values digitized from Figure 2 in the archived publication; minor reading error is possible.
Years relative to opening	Near–far comparison	Near–near comparison
−3	0.01	0.02
−2	0	-0.01
−1	0	0
0	-0.05	-0.045
+1	-0.065	-0.06
+2	-0.055	-0.05
+3	-0.05	-0.075

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 3 · Rents before and after the completion year

The completion event study shows little pre-trend and a growing negative rent effect afterward.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 3 · Rents before and after the completion year

Figure 3 · Rents before and after the completion year. Values digitized from Figure 3; the one-year estimate is checked against the reported −1.6% result in the archived publication; minor reading error is possible.
Years relative to completion	Nearby existing rentals
−5	0.1
−4	0.15
−3	0.05
−2	0.1
−1	0
0	-0.25
+1	-0.55
+2	-0.9
+3	-1.25
+4	-1.55
+5	-1.8

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 15 · Proximity to new projects, rents, and displacement

The paper’s paired distance plots show lower rents and lower measured displacement risk closest to new projects.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 15 · Proximity to new projects, rents, and displacement

Figure 15 · Proximity to new projects, rents, and displacement. Values reconstructed from quantities reported by the authors at Figure 15 and the paper’s results summary; outcomes use the authors’ percentage or percentage-point scales.
Outcome	Estimated effect
Rent within 500m	-2.3
Move to poorer ZIP	-17.14
Eviction notice within 100m	-0.77
Parcel gentrification	2.5

Evidence stack

Studies behind this conclusion

Pennington, 2021Working paper

Does Building New Housing Cause Displacement?

New market-rate construction lowered nearby rents, displacement risk, and rent-controlled eviction notices, while also changing very local entrant composition.

Within 500m, rents fell 1.2–2.3% and measured displacement risk fell 17%

Keep in mind: The displacement proxy is imperfect, San Francisco is unusual, and this is a working paper.

Study details →

Asquith, Mast & Reed, 2023Peer reviewed

Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas

Large market-rate buildings lowered nearby listed rents in low-income neighborhoods and drew movers from other low-income areas.

Nearby listed rents fell 5–7% relative to trend

Keep in mind: The main sample contains 96 buildings, and Zillow underrepresents cheaper rentals.

Study details →

Li, 2022Peer reviewed

Do New Housing Units in Your Backyard Raise Your Rents?

Completed high-rises lowered nearby rents and sale prices even while attracting restaurants, suggesting the local supply effect outweighed the amenity effect.

A 10% local stock increase lowered nearby rents by about 1%

Keep in mind: The rent data omit many small buildings, and the result is hyperlocal.

Study details →

From evidence to policy

Reforms connected to this claim

05Put more homes where the connections already areA train station surrounded by housing bans is a public investment surrounded by a private waiting list. Let more people live within reach.

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