Peer reviewed2025Germany

The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents

Mense

Main finding

New supply reduced rents across the quality distribution and expanded the availability of second-hand homes, including in high-demand markets.

A 1% increase in annual new supply lowered average rents by 0.19%

Most important limitation

The setting is Germany and the outcome is posted rather than contract rent.

From the publication

Inspect the authors' figure directly

Figure from the paper

Figure 3 · Impact of new housing supply on the distribution of rents

Every rent-quality decile has a negative estimate; the vertical bars show 95% confidence intervals.

Published two-panel coefficient plot showing negative rent effects from new housing supply across nine rent-quality deciles and by local homeownership rate.

Source: Mense (2025), Figure 3; PDF p. 20.

Read carefully: The setting is Germany and the outcome is quality-adjusted posted rent rather than contract rent.

How this study is used

Claims this evidence supports

Strong evidenceMore homes give renters more leverage.See the full evidence stack →Strong evidenceOne new home can open many doors.See the full evidence stack →

Reference

Mense (2025). “The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents.”

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