One new home can open many doors.

The first resident leaves another home behind. The next resident often does too. Those moving chains carry vacancies into older homes, cheaper homes, and more neighborhoods.

What this does not mean: New market-rate housing does not instantly become deeply affordable. Moving chains complement, rather than replace, subsidized homes and income assistance for people the market cannot serve.

Figures from the papers

Inspect the published evidence directly

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 2 · Rent event studies

Both comparison strategies turn negative after treatment; the vertical bars show uncertainty.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 2 · Rent event studies

Figure 2 · Rent event studies. Values digitized from Figure 2 in the archived publication; minor reading error is possible.
Years relative to opening	Near–far comparison	Near–near comparison
−3	0.01	0.02
−2	0	-0.01
−1	0	0
0	-0.05	-0.045
+1	-0.065	-0.06
+2	-0.055	-0.05
+3	-0.05	-0.075

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 3 · Impact of new housing supply on the distribution of rents

Every rent-quality decile has a negative estimate; the vertical bars show 95% confidence intervals.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 3 · Impact of new housing supply on the distribution of rents

Figure 3 · Impact of new housing supply on the distribution of rents. Values digitized from Figure 3 and centered on the authors’ reported average elasticity of −0.19 in the archived publication; minor reading error is possible.
Rent-quality decile	Quality-adjusted posted rent
Lowest rent	-0.15
2	-0.16
3	-0.17
4	-0.18
5	-0.19
6	-0.2
7	-0.21
8	-0.22
Highest rent	-0.24

Study chart · redrawn

Figure 6 · Equivalent unit creation

As moves propagate, the model reaches more below-median-income and rent-burdened neighborhoods.

REDRAWN FROM STUDY DATAFigure 6 · Equivalent unit creation

Figure 6 · Equivalent unit creation. Values digitized from Figure 6; endpoints checked against the reported 45–70 and 17–39 person ranges in the archived publication; minor reading error is possible.
Migration round	Below-median-income tracts	Bottom-quintile tracts	Rent-burdened tracts
0	0	0	0
5	34	15	25
10	49	24	36
15	58	31	42
20	63	35	46
25	66	37	48
30	68	38	49
35	69	39	50

Evidence stack

Studies behind this conclusion

Mast, 2023Peer reviewed

The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market

Moves into new market-rate buildings open older homes throughout the market, and those chains reach lower-income neighborhoods within a few years.

100 new homes led 45–70 people to leave below-median-income tracts within five years

Keep in mind: The chain endpoint is modeled and counts people rather than housing units.

Study details →

Mense, 2025Peer reviewed

The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents

New supply reduced rents across the quality distribution and expanded the availability of second-hand homes, including in high-demand markets.

A 1% increase in annual new supply lowered average rents by 0.19%

Keep in mind: The setting is Germany and the outcome is posted rather than contract rent.

Study details →

Asquith, Mast & Reed, 2023Peer reviewed

Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas

Large market-rate buildings lowered nearby listed rents in low-income neighborhoods and drew movers from other low-income areas.

Nearby listed rents fell 5–7% relative to trend

Keep in mind: The main sample contains 96 buildings, and Zillow underrepresents cheaper rentals.

Study details →

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